george mason university researchers help intelligence community improve predictions global crises fairfax accurately predicted events september 11 2001 attacks pearl harbor wwii question faced intelligence community work predict prevent global crisis accuracy predictions potential save lives change course history to help improve accuracy predictions george mason university leading multi institution research team project called decomposition based aggregative daggre team awarded $22 million contract intelligence advanced research projects activity iarpa research branch intelligence community participate nationwide multi year research project called aggregative contingent estimation ace program contract value nearly $82 million fully funded year period
the daggre project aims improve accuracy intelligence analysts predicting future events researchers recruiting diverse group participants attempt discover certain types people better making accurate predictions participants asked provide predictions events trends areas politics military economics business science technology forecasts participants help researchers gain knowledge new methods used collecting combining opinions people provide accurate forecasts improve communication resultsthe results daggre project change way forecast global events enable decision makers make informed choices says charles twardy principal investigator project research assistant professor 